Both the Welsh Labour Party and the Welsh Conservatives have gained votes in the latest polls – why?

YouGov’s final poll of the Welsh parliamentary elections sees the Welsh Labour Party and the Welsh Conservatives both gaining votes – and putting the Welsh Labour Party in the box seat to once again be confirmed as the indispensable player in the Senedd, whether they do well enough to form a minority government or if they are reliant on one kind of coalition or another. 

The election looks to have been the story of two successes and two failures. The success of Wales’ vaccine rollout – Wales has a greater proportion of vaccinated adults than any other part of the UK thanks to their ‘lean’ approach to vaccination, which has contributed to the favourable introduction of the First Minister, Mark Drakeford, to voters, and with it surely provided Welsh Labour with a boost as they chase what would be another 26 years in power. But the success, also, of the Welsh Conservatives in gobbling up most of the Ukip vote. 

But it is also the story of two failures. The first is the failure of the Conservatives to kill off Abolish, the anti-devolution party which, if the polls are right, is providing a home for enough former Ukip voters that it may blunt the gains the Tories could have made through Ukip’s collapse. The second is the failure of the Welsh Conservatives to argue that the success of the Welsh rollout is really a success of the British union: one that has been months in the making, because the Welsh Conservatives’ flirtation with lockdown-scepticism surely cannot have helped. 

That means the election will, once again, come down to those tight Labour-Conservative races in seats that have switched between the two parties at Westminster since 2010 but have …read more

Source:: New Statesman


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