Can XRP Fall 10% in September 2025? The New Price Predictions And Technical Analysis
The urgent
question “How low can XRP go in September 2025?” has
intensified as the cryptocurrency trades at $2.75, down 4% in the past 24 hours
and testing critical support levels that could determine its trajectory through
the historically challenging month. Why is XRP going down reflects
both seasonal headwinds and technical breakdown from the $2.80-$2.87 resistance
zone.
My
technical analysis indicates that this may not be the end of the decline. The
rejection of a bullish flag pattern suggests that XRP could fall by 10% in
September, testing two-month lows.
XRP Price September 2025: Market
Dynamics Today
XRP enters
September facing significant pressure after breaking below the crucial
$2.80 support level during heavy selling, when volume spiked to 76.87M, nearly
triple the daily average. The cryptocurrency today, Monday, 1 September 2025,
trades at $2.75, having moved across a $0.12 (4%) range in the past
24 hours.
Key XRP
metrics for September 1, 2025:
- Current price: $2.75 (down 4% in 24
hours) - Critical
support test: $2.80 level breached - Institutional
liquidations: $1.9 billion since July - Whale accumulation: 340 million XRP in two
weeks - Total
whale holdings: 7.84 billion XRP
The price
action reveals a stark divergence between short-term liquidators selling and long-term
holders accumulating, creating conflicting signals for September’s direction.
What is the XRP current price? Source: CoinMarketCap
Expert Technical Analysis:
Limited XRP/USDT Downside Expected
According
to my technical analysis of the XRP/USDT chart, the recent declines
observed since August 27 have now extended to the sixth consecutive session.
The bullish scenario I had previously assumed
within a flag formation framework has been invalidated as the
price broke below the formation range.
Given
that XRP has exited the flag formation to the downside, I now expect that
XRP notations during September may correct downward rather than rise
dynamically. However, there isn’t much room for further declines at this
moment. It’s worth noting that local support remains in play, defined by
levels from July and August in the range of $2.80 to $2.75, which is also
being tested today on September 1, 2025.
Although
the price briefly fell to $2.70, at the time of writing it has already
rebounded by 7 cents to $2.77. On the daily chart, a bullish pin bar
candle is forming since morning. If the local support fails to hold, XRP
could decline toward a confluence of support levels drawn at the height of
peaks from March and May of this year in the $2.60 range. This zone is
capped by the $2.50 level where the 200-day exponential moving
average (200 EMA) runs.
XRP price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Answering
the question of how low XRP can fall in September 2025, I believe that from
current levels it will not be more than 10% or 26 cents maximum. I
will continue to maintain the principle that any corrections in this range
are opportunities for accumulation, chances to buy XRP at more attractive
prices.
While we
can forget about the flag formation, in the medium term I would still
expect a return to around $3.60, which from current levels means nearly
30% growth potential, and from the vicinity of my designated support zone and
200 EMA almost 45%.
On-Chain Analysis:
Critical Support Zones
Glassnode Cost Basis
Reveals Key Level
Glassnode’s
cost basis analysis identifies the most critical support zone for XRP.
The largest supply cluster sits between $2.81-$2.82, where 1.71
billion XRP were acquired. With XRP trading just below this zone at $2.75, the
breakdown has likely triggered profit-taking as holders see their gains
vanish.
Source: Glassnode.com
Whale Accumulation vs.
Institutional Selling
Despite the
technical breakdown, whale wallets holding 10-100 million XRP accumulated
340 million tokens over the past two weeks, bringing their total holdings
to 7.84 billion XRP. This massive accumulation occurred primarily in
the $3.20-$3.30 range, suggesting institutional confidence despite short-term
weakness.
The
divergence is stark: $1.9 billion in institutional liquidations since July contrasts
sharply with whale buying, indicating different time horizons and risk
appetites among large holders.
XRP Price Predictions
September 2025: Expert Consensus
Conservative
Forecasts
Changelly’s
September 2025 predictions show:
- Minimum
price: $2.74 - Average
price: $2.96 - Maximum
price: $3.17 - Potential
ROI: 12.8%
Binance’s
forecast remains more conservative with September ending around $2.80,
suggesting limited recovery potential.
Bullish Scenarios
Elon Musk’s
Grok AI projects XRP could reach $3.50-$4.20 in September 2025, with
potential for $5+ if spot ETF approval materializes. The AI bases this on
regulatory clarity following the Ripple case and growing institutional
adoption.
James
Crypto Space, on the other hand, predicts
that by the end of this month XRP’s price will rise to $9. Standard
Chartered forecasts an
increase to $5.50 this year and to $8 dollars next year.
September Headwinds:
Multiple Risk Factors for XRP
Historical September
Unlike
Bitcoin, which
I discussed in the context of “Red September” here, XRP has historically
performed well in September. The average for this month is a gain of nearly 87
percent, and the last time it declined in September was in 2021.
Source: Barchart
Regulatory Uncertainty
Persists
Despite
progress in the Ripple-SEC case, ongoing regulatory pressure in the U.S. keeps
institutions cautious. However, 15 XRP ETF applications filed with
the SEC provide potential upside catalysts.
Technical Breakdown
Signals
Key
momentum indicators confirm bearish pressure:
- MACD bearish crossover imminent
on weekly charts - RSI shows oversold conditions in mid-40s
- Volume spike at $2.80 breakdown
confirms distribution
Institutional Adoption
Provides Floor
ETF
Momentum Building – ProShares
Ultra XRP ETF attracted $1.2 billion in its first month, while CME
XRP futures crossed $1 billion, becoming the fastest-growing product
on the platform.
Corporate
Treasury Adoption – Japanese
gaming firm Gumi allocated $17 million to XRP between September
2025-February 2026, while Hyperscale Data plans to raise $125 million with
portions earmarked for XRP.
Liquidity
Maps Show Upside Potential – On-chain data reveals liquidity concentrations up to $4.00 that
could amplify any recovery move, with technical patterns suggesting $5-$13
upside potential if resistance breaks.
FAQ: XRP September 2025
Outlook
How low can XRP
realistically go in September 2025?
Technical
analysis suggests maximum 10% decline to $2.50-$2.60 range, with 200-day EMA
providing strong support near current levels.
Why is XRP going down
despite whale accumulation?
$1.9B
institutional liquidations since July outweigh 340M tokens of whale buying,
creating short-term selling pressure despite long-term confidence.
What would trigger an XRP
recovery in September?
Breaking
above $2.87 resistance could flip sentiment toward $3.30, while XRP ETF
approval could spark significant upside.
Is the $2.80 level
significant for XRP?
Yes. Glassnode
shows 1.71B XRP acquired at $2.81-$2.82, making this the largest cost basis
cluster and critical support zone.
The urgent
question “How low can XRP go in September 2025?” has
intensified as the cryptocurrency trades at $2.75, down 4% in the past 24 hours
and testing critical support levels that could determine its trajectory through
the historically challenging month. Why is XRP going down reflects
both seasonal headwinds and technical breakdown from the $2.80-$2.87 resistance
zone.
My
technical analysis indicates that this may not be the end of the decline. The
rejection of a bullish flag pattern suggests that XRP could fall by 10% in
September, testing two-month lows.
XRP Price September 2025: Market
Dynamics Today
XRP enters
September facing significant pressure after breaking below the crucial
$2.80 support level during heavy selling, when volume spiked to 76.87M, nearly
triple the daily average. The cryptocurrency today, Monday, 1 September 2025,
trades at $2.75, having moved across a $0.12 (4%) range in the past
24 hours.
Key XRP
metrics for September 1, 2025:
- Current price: $2.75 (down 4% in 24
hours) - Critical
support test: $2.80 level breached - Institutional
liquidations: $1.9 billion since July - Whale accumulation: 340 million XRP in two
weeks - Total
whale holdings: 7.84 billion XRP
The price
action reveals a stark divergence between short-term liquidators selling and long-term
holders accumulating, creating conflicting signals for September’s direction.
What is the XRP current price? Source: CoinMarketCap
Expert Technical Analysis:
Limited XRP/USDT Downside Expected
According
to my technical analysis of the XRP/USDT chart, the recent declines
observed since August 27 have now extended to the sixth consecutive session.
The bullish scenario I had previously assumed
within a flag formation framework has been invalidated as the
price broke below the formation range.
Given
that XRP has exited the flag formation to the downside, I now expect that
XRP notations during September may correct downward rather than rise
dynamically. However, there isn’t much room for further declines at this
moment. It’s worth noting that local support remains in play, defined by
levels from July and August in the range of $2.80 to $2.75, which is also
being tested today on September 1, 2025.
Although
the price briefly fell to $2.70, at the time of writing it has already
rebounded by 7 cents to $2.77. On the daily chart, a bullish pin bar
candle is forming since morning. If the local support fails to hold, XRP
could decline toward a confluence of support levels drawn at the height of
peaks from March and May of this year in the $2.60 range. This zone is
capped by the $2.50 level where the 200-day exponential moving
average (200 EMA) runs.
XRP price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com
Answering
the question of how low XRP can fall in September 2025, I believe that from
current levels it will not be more than 10% or 26 cents maximum. I
will continue to maintain the principle that any corrections in this range
are opportunities for accumulation, chances to buy XRP at more attractive
prices.
While we
can forget about the flag formation, in the medium term I would still
expect a return to around $3.60, which from current levels means nearly
30% growth potential, and from the vicinity of my designated support zone and
200 EMA almost 45%.
On-Chain Analysis:
Critical Support Zones
Glassnode Cost Basis
Reveals Key Level
Glassnode’s
cost basis analysis identifies the most critical support zone for XRP.
The largest supply cluster sits between $2.81-$2.82, where 1.71
billion XRP were acquired. With XRP trading just below this zone at $2.75, the
breakdown has likely triggered profit-taking as holders see their gains
vanish.
Source: Glassnode.com
Whale Accumulation vs.
Institutional Selling
Despite the
technical breakdown, whale wallets holding 10-100 million XRP accumulated
340 million tokens over the past two weeks, bringing their total holdings
to 7.84 billion XRP. This massive accumulation occurred primarily in
the $3.20-$3.30 range, suggesting institutional confidence despite short-term
weakness.
The
divergence is stark: $1.9 billion in institutional liquidations since July contrasts
sharply with whale buying, indicating different time horizons and risk
appetites among large holders.
XRP Price Predictions
September 2025: Expert Consensus
Conservative
Forecasts
Changelly’s
September 2025 predictions show:
- Minimum
price: $2.74 - Average
price: $2.96 - Maximum
price: $3.17 - Potential
ROI: 12.8%
Binance’s
forecast remains more conservative with September ending around $2.80,
suggesting limited recovery potential.
Bullish Scenarios
Elon Musk’s
Grok AI projects XRP could reach $3.50-$4.20 in September 2025, with
potential for $5+ if spot ETF approval materializes. The AI bases this on
regulatory clarity following the Ripple case and growing institutional
adoption.
James
Crypto Space, on the other hand, predicts
that by the end of this month XRP’s price will rise to $9. Standard
Chartered forecasts an
increase to $5.50 this year and to $8 dollars next year.
September Headwinds:
Multiple Risk Factors for XRP
Historical September
Unlike
Bitcoin, which
I discussed in the context of “Red September” here, XRP has historically
performed well in September. The average for this month is a gain of nearly 87
percent, and the last time it declined in September was in 2021.
Source: Barchart
Regulatory Uncertainty
Persists
Despite
progress in the Ripple-SEC case, ongoing regulatory pressure in the U.S. keeps
institutions cautious. However, 15 XRP ETF applications filed with
the SEC provide potential upside catalysts.
Technical Breakdown
Signals
Key
momentum indicators confirm bearish pressure:
- MACD bearish crossover imminent
on weekly charts - RSI shows oversold conditions in mid-40s
- Volume spike at $2.80 breakdown
confirms distribution
Institutional Adoption
Provides Floor
ETF
Momentum Building – ProShares
Ultra XRP ETF attracted $1.2 billion in its first month, while CME
XRP futures crossed $1 billion, becoming the fastest-growing product
on the platform.
Corporate
Treasury Adoption – Japanese
gaming firm Gumi allocated $17 million to XRP between September
2025-February 2026, while Hyperscale Data plans to raise $125 million with
portions earmarked for XRP.
Liquidity
Maps Show Upside Potential – On-chain data reveals liquidity concentrations up to $4.00 that
could amplify any recovery move, with technical patterns suggesting $5-$13
upside potential if resistance breaks.
FAQ: XRP September 2025
Outlook
How low can XRP
realistically go in September 2025?
Technical
analysis suggests maximum 10% decline to $2.50-$2.60 range, with 200-day EMA
providing strong support near current levels.
Why is XRP going down
despite whale accumulation?
$1.9B
institutional liquidations since July outweigh 340M tokens of whale buying,
creating short-term selling pressure despite long-term confidence.
What would trigger an XRP
recovery in September?
Breaking
above $2.87 resistance could flip sentiment toward $3.30, while XRP ETF
approval could spark significant upside.
Is the $2.80 level
significant for XRP?
Yes. Glassnode
shows 1.71B XRP acquired at $2.81-$2.82, making this the largest cost basis
cluster and critical support zone.